By Wayne Lusvardi
The City of Irvine is suing the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) over its mandate that 21,282 units of low and moderate income new housing be built within the City by 2014. Mark Asturias, the housing manager for the City of Irvine, says the requirement “burdens Irvine with a mandate that is unfair, unreasonable, unattainable and inequitable.” But what is a fair share of affordable housing?
The national homeownership rate was 55.0% in 1950. Contrary to popular notions, since 1960 the homeownership rate in the United States has increased 6.8 percentage points, from 62.1% to 68.9%. The homeownership rate in the United States in 2005 was similar to that in other modern nations at 68.9%. It is not that the homeownership rate in California has fallen but that it has lagged behind the relative rise outside of California.
In California, one’s chance of homeownership increases greatest, from 47.4% to 67.2%, if one moves from Los Angeles to Riverside-San Bernardino. Conversely, chances of homeownership are the lowest in Los Angeles County (47.4%). Moving from Los Angeles to Orange County would increase one’s chances of homeonwership to 61.4%. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the homeownership rate in Orange County actually increased from 1994 to 2005, from 58.6% to 61.4%, a 2.8 percentage-point increase. Why should Irvine have huge quotas of low and moderate income housing imposed on it, leaving unaffordable cities and counties such as Los Angeles and the Bay Area with relatively light quotas?
The U.S. Census reports that California homeownership actually increased 1.6% percentage points, from 55.4% to 57.0%, between 1995 to 2005. Contrary to another popular misconception, homeownership rates in California have always hovered in the 50% range, growing from 54.3% in 1950 to 57.1% in 2000. So why do we consider that we have a housing affordability crisis in California now if we didn’t consider it so in 1950?
As for rental occupied housing, there is not even reliable data from which to ascertain if there is an actual rather than just a perceived affordability crisis.
Survey after survey is trotted out by local government agencies using the apartment rents in brand new luxury apartments or Class A apartment buildings, which typically have amenities such as pools and gyms and are located near convenient shopping centers or light rail stations. True affordable housing is old, small, unrenovated, obsolescent, not near shopping, freeways, or public transit, and usually owned by a mom-and-pop landlord. But typically these aren’t counted in low-income housing surveys. Only “new rooftops” meet the State housing-mandate criteria.
According to the U.S. Census, about 15.6% of individuals in Irvine are considered in poverty, compared to 13.3% for the state. By this criterion, there is no basis for imposing affordable housing quotas on Irvine because it already has its fair share of such housing.
Affordable housing mandates in California are a bottomless pit and have no measure by which to judge success because the number of newly arriving immigrants in poverty grows daily, the proportion of renters who desire to be homeowners is endless, and the affordability of apartment rents is unknown.
How do we know if Irvine already has met its fair share of affordable housing? We don’t and we can’t because there is no such “fair share standard” in the first place. The quotas are well-disguised political contrivances apparently meant to achieve more of a political balance of low income residents in Red (Republican) counties and cities. It is hard to see housing quotas as anything but Stalin-like attempts at politicized population engineering.
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Wayne Lusvardi, of Pasadena, is a former low-income housing analyst for Los Angeles County and appraiser for the Metro Water District of Southern California. The views expressed are his own. He blogs at PasadenaPundit.com.