California Republicans should back Demo bill to allow a majority to pass the state budget

If you’re not from California, you should know about the weird kabuki dance done almost every year over our state budget. The state Constitution mandates a 2/3 vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget.

So, the Democratic majority in the Legislature spends wildly, often with the connivance of Republican governors, such as Gov. Arnold, and proposes tax increases. Then the Republican minority in each house, which barely has enough votes to make it past the one-third threshold to reject a budget, insists on minor spending cuts and (usually) stops tax increases. So the GOP is portrayed as a bunch of skinflints who won’t approve “minor” and “temporary” tax hikes. Deficits almost always result.

Every couple of years, things are so bad that a GOP governor can get enough GOP votes in the Legislature to pass a tax increase, as Gov. Pete Wilson did in 1991 and Gov. Arnold soon will do later this year. The tax increases sink the economy and make matters worse. Eventually, large spending cuts are made to satisfy the New York banks that hold the state’s bond paper.

Meanwhile, the GOP numbers keep shrinking because new immigrants, who keep coming here, vote 70% Democrat.

The GOP has one chance to regain some momentum: Let the Democrats completely wreck the state. The instrument: Democratic state Sen. Tom Torlakson’s bill, SCA 22, which, if it is put on the ballot and voters approve it, would reduce the 2/3 budget requirement to a majority.

If it is enacted, then Democrats would immediately, at first chance, jack up taxes to unsustainable levels. Doing so would chase out even more businesses and jobs, crashing the economy and reducing the tax base. Budget deficits would widen, mandating more (not fewer) spending cuts.

Unemployment would zoom up to 15%, a depression-level.

Republicans would then say, “See, we told you so” — and have a chance of getting a majority.

Of course, being California Republicans, they then would mess it up by backing some Arnold-Wilson clone moderate for governor, who would act like a Democrat, leading people to put the real Democrats back in charge of the Legislature.

But at least there might be a brief, shining moment when reality prevails and leads to actual tax and spending cuts.

Finally, Republicans might as well pass this reform now because it’s going to happen no matter what after the 2010 U.S. Census. Redistricting will reflect the influx of those 70% Democratic immigrant voters, leading to Democrats controlling 2/3 of each House of the Legislature anyway.

But the above scenario no doubt is too complex for California Republicans, who think Machiavelli is an Italian sports car.