Richard Rider on the California fires

One of the more interesting folks in California is Richard Rider, chair of San Diego Tax Fighters. He ran for governor in 1994 on the Libertarian Party ticket, and would have been much better than Pete Wilson, who won. Wilson went on to impose the 1996 electricity “deregulation” on our state, really a re-regulation that led to the blackouts a few years later.

Rider sent me a “rant,” as he calls it, on the fires, which he saw first-hand in San Diego:

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RICHARD RIDER RANT 10/26/2007

As you would expect, this issue is devoted entirely to fire fighting in general, and the San Diego County fire disaster in particular. It is a LONG rant with 14 items, but the topic is both critical and current. Of course, I’ve tried to break it down into manageable reading chapters.

The good news is that – at TREMENDOUS expense and tragic loss of life – we had an opportunity to learn from the 2003 massive Cedar fire, with four years to implement needed improvements and reforms. The bad news is that, in some critical matters, our politicians and bureaucrats didn’t seem to learn a damn thing.

In no special order, here’s what we need to know about the San Diego County fires of 2007. The lessons from this experience apply to other counties and states facing similar dangers.

 

1. At last count, about 560,000 San Diego County residents have been evacuated (and now are gradually returning home). Of those refugees, perhaps 25,000 ended up at government emergency centers. Amazingly, the other 535,000 found private solutions to their homelessness.

Some paid for hotel and motel rooms. A relatively few went to business locations and basically stayed in the office. But surely the overwhelming majority ended up in private homes. Some hosts were family members, but most were probably just friends who offered to house other friends. This is particularly impressive, given that seldom was it a neighbor’ abode, as neighbors all had to leave together.

Speaking for my family in Scripps Ranch, when it became probable that we would be ordered to evacuate, I can say we received at least a dozen serious offers of lodging. Probably more, but things were too hectic to keep track. That kind of countywide volunteer response is heartening, to say the least.

 

 

2. The Qualcomm stadium emergency center was SWAMPED by volunteers. But the truth is, they should have needed almost no non-refugee volunteers after the initial displaced folks had settled in. After all, the refugees themselves were not injured, and had nothing better to do, so it was only right and proper that those being helped step forward to volunteer for the tasks at hand. They did, and that too is heartening.

3. Officials can’t say enough wonderful things about the reverse 9-1-1 evacuation system. And overall it certainly was a success.

But it definitely was not without serious flaws:

A. Unlisted numbers and cell phones could not be automatically called. The good news is that a new system is being put in place where such folks can voluntarily sign their numbers up for such emergency notifications.

B. It appears that an unknown number of automated calls did not deliver the message. The phone would ring, the callee would pick up, and no recording would be heard. It’s not clear how often that happened. We Riders suspect it happened in our case, and I’ve heard of a few other examples.

C. The calls are not as timely as people think. At the Monday afternoon 3 PM press conference, the mayor announced the mandatory evacuation of Scripps Ranch. At 5:05 PM – over two hours later – my family received on our listed lines almost simultaneously the reverse 9-1-1 calls, complete with the recording. We had received a dead line call about 3:15 PM which likely was the first attempt at an automated call to our home number. So if you wait for the phone call before you finally leave, you might be surprised at how tardily it is received.

D. Here’s an unintended consequence of such as system: By making it so easy for the authorities to painlessly call (almost) everyone to get out, it makes the evacuation order too tempting to give.

 

Scripps Ranch is a prime example. Because politicians are particularly sensitive about how poorly they handled the 2003 fire in my subdivision (300+ houses were destroyed), they jumped the gun. Scripps was NOT threatened by a fire. But the bureaucratic mind could not resist the evacuation order.

4. When we have these conflagrations, there are two fairly distinct types of fires that threaten humans and structures:

A. The classic brush fire. Rural homes close to brush are hard to save, and people are at significant risk if they stay, unless they have made extraordinary preparations. The roaring fire can be so intense that it can set flammables within the house afire simply from the outside radiant heat (especially curtains). If the residents flee too late, the narrow, twisting rural roads can lead to melting tires and cars crashing off the road. In the 2003 Cedar fire, apparently every person who died was in these rural circumstances.

B. Suburban fires. These are fires caused by nearby brush, or the EMBERS from such brush. While the suburban fire area is quite small compared to the overall wildfire, these incursions usually destroy more houses than the rural brush fires.

In suburbia, the situation is quite different than the country. Aside from those homes abutting brush-rich canyons (brush which should have been cleared back to make a firebreak), almost ALL suburban house fires are caused by EMBERS. A one-inch glowing ember lands in a bush beside a house, the bush gradually catches fire, and ultimately so does the home. Flammable wood roofs used to be a problem, but few houses today still have such roofs. We Riders replaced our wood shake roof over a decade ago.

 

5. It is truly un-American to issue MANDATORY evacuation orders. In the land of the free, we individuals should have the right to put ourselves in harm’s way to protect our property. As too many folks learned in 2003 and again in 2007, it is folly to leave to government the job of protecting one’s home from fire in such a large “incident” (as the fire folks love to call big fires).

Yes, I understand the argument that staying and fighting fires puts fire fighters in a dangerous position in rescuing such folks. Perhaps – and I say just perhaps – such an order might make sense in some rural areas (personally I still oppose such mandates). But there is no doubt in my mind that within suburban areas, the evacuation notices clearly should be VOLUNTARY, not mandatory.

 

6. Yes, as you might have suspected, I broke the law. I did not evacuate when the recorded message came.

Or did I? Break the law, I mean I think not. And neither does San Diego County official spokeswoman Jan Caldwell. According to her, “If they do not want to leave their home, it’s their call. If they don’t want to go, it’s not a crime.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071026/news_1n26behind.html

BTW, the above article very favorably presents those hardy rural souls who defied the evacuation orders, staying behind to successfully defend their homes from the fires.

I sent off my wife Diane and son Scott (who is on crutches from a sports injury) with two carloads loaded with goodies we wanted saved. Diane was terrific – she accepted without argument my decision that, unlike the 2003 fire, it was okay for me – a rather overweight 62 year old with a back problem – to stay and fight the only fire threat to our home – embers. I felt fortunate that I was unexpectedly joined by my older son Steven, who came down from Santa Barbara to help out.

While it is not a crime to stay, one better not wander away from one’s home, as apparently the police CAN then arrest you (or at least deport you out of the fire area) as you might be a potential looter. Trying to ENTER an officially evacuated area, even if you live there, apparently is an arrestable offense, though it might not stand up to a jury trial.

Here’s an unintended consequence – if I go next door to water down the embers around my neighbor’s house, I might be subject to arrest, as I’m no longer on my property. Seldom would such madness occur, but essentially that seems to be the letter of the law.

If the police do come to arrest me, they’ll need to first go get former San Diego fire chief Jeff Bowman, who defied mandatory evacuation orders to leave his Escondido home.

Was my 2 man home defense team alone in Scripps Ranch after the mandatory evacuation? Not hardly! Turns out that quite a number of men (apparently it’s a guy thing) quietly stayed at home, choosing not to answer the door when the police came by with their eviction demand (actually a bluff). I didn’t know about this until after the evacuation order was rescinded. And I’m discovering more semi-criminals seemingly by the hour.

Once the police pulled out, we each independently proceeded to make whatever preparations we deemed appropriate to deal with the fire threat. While the government provides zero guidance or assistance in such matters, common sense and previous fire experience with the 2003 fire served as a pretty good counselor.

It would have been helpful to know which houses were being actively defended. It helps when one civilian home firefighter can sleep while the other one keeps watch. But because remaining behind to defend one’s home is wrongly assumed to be illegal, we each kept to ourselves and lacked such backup (except in my case, since I had an able, athletic co-worker). Hence we have yet another example of how government’s overzealous protection of us can unexpectedly put us at greater risk.

At my home, I still have four garden hosed rigged up and ready to go. To deal with low water pressure, I set up a ladder to the roof, where I rigged a home-made cistern filled with water. I had other water-holding containers around the house (except out front, so as not to draw unwanted attention). In addition, we have a full Jacuzzi. Wet blankets were ready to smother small fires.

Suburban fire fighting of these mislabeled “brush fires” is a very serious adult version of the kids’ “whack-a-mole” game. An ember lands on a bush, you put it out. Then you run around, constantly looking for other embers, trying to douse them before they can get a fire going. Ideally you have at least two active fire fighters – one on the roof, and one running the parameter. But one person often can do the job – at least as long as you have a pretty fireproof roof.

Of course, one can lose this contest. So there can come a point where you have to retreat, giving up on the house. I have two contingency plans for such a defeat.

1. Get in my car in the street. As we know, suburban fires leave one house standing, the next house burned. So the lack of uniform high heat gives a person in a reasonably wide suburban street the option to move to a cooler area, of flee all together of the chance presents itself. Even just staying in the center of the street should in most cases be adequate to avoid incineration of suffocation.

2. If perchance the road doesn’t offer a suitable relief choice, my back yard neighbor has a huge pool. In a pinch, I would retreat (complete with my mask and snorkel) to that body of water and wait out the worst of the fire.

Here’s the thing most people don’t realize – while risky, suburban firefighting is FAR less dangerous than you would expect – especially when you consider the stakes involved – one’s home. Based on numerous examples I’m personally familiar with from the 2003 fires, in every instance, the suburban homeowner/firefighter won. Not ONE suburban homeowner died. Not ONE! I don’t think one was even significantly injured.

Not only that – in case after case, the homeowner/firefighter often saved the homes on either side of their house. And not with high tech gear – just garden hoses, shovels, wet blankets and buckets of water.

Looking back at the disastrous 2003 Scripps Ranch fire, it is clear to me that at least 80% of the gutted homes could have been saved by such volunteer efforts. The houses too close to the brush were doomed without professional firefighters (who didn’t show up), but most houses that burned were abandoned targets of mindless embers drifting down. Indeed, if the few guys who did stay in 2003 hadn’t been there to defend homes, the destroyed house count would have been higher.

In the unexpected 2003 fire, I ran away, taking my family to safety. I’ve been angry with myself every since. But, in fairness, the image we all then had of a hundred foot fire sweeping through the suburb was daunting. Later, as we learned, it was a false image. I suspect that is why (from what I can discern) a significantly higher number of guys stayed behind this time to deal with the fire threat.

Some think the risk of staying is too great. In particular, they worry about a “fire storm” which sucks up all the oxygen. For a variety of reasons, that’s not what happens in today’s suburban fires. Not even close.

But here’s the bottom line: If you want to stay and fight a fire, it should be YOUR choice. The government should in a position to provide fire evacuation ADVICE and information, but they are a poor choice for making MANDATORY decisions concerning what we are willing to risk as individuals.

 

7. Which brings me to perhaps the dumbest thing government does (or doesn’t do) in these fires. Simply stated, they don’t find out where the fires are, how big they are, what their boundaries are. With all of today’s technology – satellites, high flying spy planes, unmanned spy drones, infrared cameras, etc., they can’t produce a real time, constantly updating map showing the SPECIFIC fire boundaries. The media is left in the dark, desperately trying to map out the fires on a pathetically small Thomas Bros map in the studios.

In any war, the key to victory is intelligence. Know where your enemy is, where they’ve been, where they are going (and how fast) and what their strength is. Fires are particularly generous in revealing where they are – nothing stealthy about a raging brush fire. Even with smoke cover, infrared cameras can easily detect and constantly track the literally red hot boundaries of fires.

Yet this still seems to be a mystery to government. They can’t tell us anything specific about the fires’ location or direction. Most important, their info is not kept up to date – usually what they release to the public is already dangerously outdated. In an afterthought, they now gradually seem to realizing that such tracking technology is readily available. Maybe next time . . . …

After the 2003 disaster, you’d think that politicians would have given more than cursory thought to improving fire detection and tracking. Not so.

The number one thing the public needs is a dynamic map on TV and a website, constantly updated in real time, showing the fires, the boundaries and the underlying road layout. That way we citizens can make more informed decisions about what we should do, and when

But government officials suffer what economist Friedrich Hayek called the “fatal conceit” – the egotistical confidence that, as central planners, they know what’s best for us all. They’d rather be in a position of issuing edicts than letting informed individuals access risk and choose their personal response. For these politicians and bureaucrats, it’s just not a priority to accurately disseminate such specific, technologically continuously updated fire information to the public.

 

8. While the lack of dynamic mapping is perhaps the dumbest thing government does, the stunning repeat of the grounding of fire fighting planes and military helos is by far the most maddening.

By now you’ve heard the stories. In 2003, frustrated military helo crews were grounded on the tarmac while CA Dept of Forestry officials demanded helo maintenance records to verify the helos met state specs. Then when they finally were allowed to fly (AFTER most of the urban homes were destroyed), they were required to practice a couple days under bureaucratic supervision to satisfy state officials that they actually could do the job. When they finally were put into action, it was pretty much a “mopping up” operation.

The outrage was widespread. No one was madder than the military pilots and crews. Legislation was passed, new regs put in place and the bureaucratic kinks were ironed out.

NOT!

Turns out that safety-obsessed bureaucrats can always come up with NEW regs to delay timely air asset responses to fires. And delay they did. For more info on this multifaceted scandal, read this AP story:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wildfires_grounded_aircraft;_ylt=Al3LkE2MDYjN3OTU.yb556es0NUE

It’s not just the helos. Military C-130’s, which can pack quite a firefighting wallop, have been scheduled since before the 2003 fires to be outfitted with water/retardant tanks. None ever have met exacting, picky government standards, so we are STILL waiting for these wonderful planes to become effective.

Not angry enough yet? Read this recent ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER editorial

http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/planes-fires-fire-1902825-california-tanker

It recounts the tale of big DC-10 fire fighting jets that carry huge loads, but are not allowed to fight fires (with one solitary plane being the exception). Plus highly effective Russian bombers are available that have been retrofitted to fight fires, but are not approved for use in the U.S.

Sadly, in the four years since the Cedar fire, it appears that not one state or local politician or fire official thought to check on the actual real world response capability of military firefighting aircraft in a fire. They completely forgot about the Marine helos. And – trust me on this – not one bureaucrat or politician will lose their job or their pension as a result of this big-time SNAFU, as we called such screw-ups in the service.

Here’s the bottom line on this issue: San Diego County SHOULD have the best air asset response in the world to a big fire. We have not one, not two, but THREE military bases with dozens of trained firefighting helos and crews. Yet we can’t get them in the air during the crucial first 48 hours of a fire when they can be most effective. Only severe government incompetence can negate such a wonderful firefighting capability.

 

9. The other thing that should make San Diego County a firefighting dynamo (but doesn’t) is the presence of TENS OF THOUSANDS of disciplined, healthy young adults trained in firefighting, just itching to help out. The Navy trains EVERY sailor and officer in at least rudimentary firefighting. Marines are not trained, but are more fit, and certainly capable of fighting suburban ember fires with little equipment or training – freeing up trained civilian firefighters to do the more arduous work.

Speaking of equipment, the Navy ships and shore stations have MASSIVE amounts of firefighting gear. They are awash with oxygen rebreathers, fireproof clothing, portable water pumps and enough fire hose to extend to Kansas. None of which has been called into service.

If local officials asked for help, would the military respond? Like gangbusters! The military LOVES to prove its worth to communities, and its personnel would eagerly volunteer to pitch in.

You’d think that after the 2003 fires, we would have made arrangements to call on the military ground forces in such times of crisis. Obviously not. The only use of ground military that I’m aware of is some sentry duty to deny homeowners the right to return to their property. Armed with (thankfully unloaded) M-16s, these hapless troops are only nominally useful.

Okay. WHY not call on the military ground forces to fight fires? Interesting question.

Politicians are skilled at getting elected, but bring no special insight, or even rudimentary curiosity to their jobs. While busily preening themselves for their reelection, or their run for higher office, they tend to rely on the “experts.”

And who are the local firefighting experts? Why, paid professional firefighters and their chiefs, of course. And firefighter union endorsements of politicians are considered a key to winning and retaining political office.

Simply stated, government union firefighters who do NOT want nonunion assistance – public or private, paid or volunteer. Hence you hear retired San Diego Fire Chief Bowman whining that the only solution to such fires is to DOUBLE the full-time, overpriced city fire department – for fires that occur once every 4 to 20 years. Madness!

Not only is this nutty suggestion cost prohibitive – it would not have stopped the fires. They were far too big for a doubled city fire department to stop. Only the addition of THOUSANDS of extra firefighters (along with air drops) could hope to contain the blazes, or at least protect urban structures.

 

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10. Here’s a common sense suggestion. We have a successful reserve police officer program. Why not a reserve FIREFIGHTER organization?

After the 2003 Scripps Ranch fire, I made an attempt to get the city interested in this idea. Given the politicians’ slavish allegiance to the firefighters’ union, I was totally ignored.

Reserve firefighters would be trained volunteer firemen (okay, women too) who would be on call for fires. There are a LOT of people who would like to join and be trained. People LIKE to be firefighters. They love the status, the risk, the feeling of satisfaction from beating back fires. Far more competent, eager volunteers would be available than would be needed. In 2003 even I (at then age 58 and still of relatively sound body) was willing to go through the training and be on call.

Such reservists would not have to achieve the degree of training of the paid firefighters, but they would be invaluable in at least fighting small fires and embers. As rural volunteer firefighters will fiercely attest, the level of professionalism of such volunteer efforts can be (if desired) surprisingly good, and the level of courage and heroism is certainly on a par with the paid firefighters. Indeed, three out of four of our nation’s firefighters are volunteers.

If we are serious about really fighting fires and controlling runaway firefighting costs, this reserve firefighter corps needs to be implemented. Don’t hold your breath.

 

11. Our politicians have been very busy doing press conferences and patting each other on the back. But they’ve been largely useless in doing their job – marshalling firefighting resources to battle the flames Sometimes called leadership. They didn’t prepare in advance, and they did little once the fires started – except clamor to get in front of TV cameras. You’d think it was the Oscars night – with everyone thanking everyone else – wasting time delaying the dissemination of needed info.

Rather than staging endless media events, our mayor and ESPECIALLY SD County Supervisors should have been on the phone to Actor Arnold and President Bush, DEMANDING immediate suspension of bureaucratic bulls-t and the activation of air assets. Hardball blackmail should have been used – “Arnold/George, if you don’t fix this in 90 minutes, we are going to hold a press conference blaming you PERSONALLY for the needless destruction and deaths caused by your heartless inertia, and your refusal to override such bumbling.”

But that’s not the way good ‘ol boy (and girl) politics work. Perhaps one problem is that all the major players in the San Diego County fires are at least nominally Republican, and they don’t want to violate the GOP’s Eleventh Commandment – “Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.”

 

12. Speaking of nominal Republicans, actor/governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has again shown that he is in way, WAY over his head. He’s Gray Davis, version 2.0. All Arnold is good for is photo ops and staged visits. Personally I think he was much better in “Kindergarten Cop.”

I suspect that Arnold senses his own leadership ineptness. As a man who, most of his adult life, has been idolized and pampered, Arnold does not take well to criticism, or even to frank questions. The term “peevish” comes readily to mind.

The latest example occurred while he was doing his princely tour of the Qualcomm stadium evacuation center. San Diego U-T columnist Gerry Braun describes this encounter well.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/braun/20071026-9999-1m26braun.html

In an embarrassing moment for everyone involved, Schwarzenegger brushed off a TV reporter’s questions about grounded Navy helicopters Tuesday, asking her to focus instead on the star treatment he was getting at Qualcomm Stadium.

“All you have to do is look around here and see how happy people are,” he said. “No one is screaming. No one is complaining. Anyone who is complaining about the planes just wants to complain.”

Did someone accidentally drop fire retardant on that guy?

 

13. Further evidence of local political mismanagement can be found in a recent WALL ST JOURNAL article, “California Fires Fuel Squabbles about Readiness.”

Consider this stunning excerpt:

State Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, who represents parts of Orange County, . . . criticized state coordinating officials for a lack of planning that prevented local fire commanders in other jurisdictions from tapping the help that was available. On Monday, he said, “San Diego was eligible for air support and [local officials] didn’t even know it.”

Can this be true? Come Monday, and unnamed San Diego “local officials” didn’t know that the county was eligible for state air support for fighting the fires? Say it isn’t so!

What possible distraction kept the County Board of Supervisors, their staffs and their county bureaucrats from DEMANDING such air assets – let alone not even KNOWING that such help was theirs for the asking.

 

14. Finally, here’s a firefighter related story that is getting zero press but deserves headlines. It turns out that the firefighter’s national labor union would prefer that rural America burned to the ground rather than allow volunteer fire departments to exist.

And they are doing what is necessary to hasten that eventuality. I don’t have time to further comment on this Congressional bill – but be aware that it is getting bipartisan support and likely will pass, barring some change in the wind.

Read this remarkable commentary:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071010/COMMENTARY/110100012/1012/COMMENTARY

Consider this excerpt:

“Nearly 26,000 volunteer fire departments protect tens of millions of Americans and their homes from fires. Almost 3 in 4 firefighters in the United States are volunteers, and smaller towns and cities call on them for protection. A town with 3,000 residents simply cannot afford the expense of hiring full-time career firefighters. They rely on volunteers.

These volunteer departments are usually anchored by a core of professional career firefighters. Often they work in another city and volunteer to protect their neighbors in their off-duty hours. Volunteer firefighters risk their lives and sacrifice their time for their communities. Who would want to shut them down?

The International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), that’s who.”